Regional assessment of the impact of climatic change on the distribution of a tropical conifer in the lowlands of South America

For decades, palynologists working in tropical South America are using the genus Podocarpus as a climate indicator although without referring to any modern data concerning its distribution and limiting factors. With the aim to characterize the modern and past distribution of the southern conifer Podocarpus in Brazil and to obtain new information on the distribution of the Atlantic rainforest during the Quaternary, we examined herbarium data to locate the populations of three Brazilian endemic Podocarpus species: P. sellowii, P. lambertii , and P. brasiliensis , and extracted DNA from fresh leaves from 26 populations. Our conclusions are drawn in the light of the combination of these three disciplines: botany, palynology, and genetics. We find that the modern distribution of endemic Podocarpus populations shows that they are widely dispersed in eastern Brazil, from north to south and reveals that the expansion of Podocarpus recorded in single Amazonian pollen records may have come from either western or eastern populations. Genetic analysis enabled us to delimit regional expansion: between 5° and 15° S grouping northern and central populations of P. sellowii expanded c . 16,000 years ago; between 15° and 23° S populations of either P. lambertii or sellowii expanded at different times since at least the last glaciation; and between 23° and 30° S, P. lambertii appeared during the recent expansion of the Araucaria forest. The combination of botany, pollen, and molecular analysis proved to be a rapid tool for inferring distribution borders for sparse populations and their regional evolution within tropical ecosystems. Today the refugia of rainforest communities we identified are crucial hotspots to allow the Atlantic forest to survive under unfavourable climatic conditions and, as such, offer the only possible opportunity for this type of forest to expand in the event of a future climate change.     

Species richness of migratory birds is influenced by global climate change

Aim  Global climate change is increasingly influencing ecosystems. Long-term effects on the species richness and composition of ecological communities have been predicted using modelling approaches but, so far, hardly demonstrated in the field. Here, we test whether changes in the composition of bird communities have been influenced by recent climate change.
Location  Europe.
Methods  We focus on the proportion of migratory and resident bird species because these groups are expected to respond differently to climatic change. We used the spatial relationship between climatic factors and bird communities in Europe to predict changes in 21 European bird communities under recent climate change.
Results  Observed changes corresponded significantly to predicted changes and could not be explained by the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Alternative factors such as changes in land use were tested in a first approximation as well but no effects were found.
Main conclusions  This study demonstrates that global climate change has already influenced the species richness and composition of European bird communities.     

Climate change and range restriction of common salamanders in eastern Canada and the United States

The sensitivity of amphibian species to shifts in environmental conditions has been exhibited through long-term population studies and the projection of ecological niche models under expected conditions. Species in biodiversity hotspots have been the focus of ample predictive modeling studies, while, despite their significant ecological value, wide-ranging and common taxa have received less attention. We focused on predicting range restriction of the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum), blue-spotted salamander (A. laterale), four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum), and red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) under future climate scenarios. Using bias-corrected future climate data and biodiversity database records, we developed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models under current conditions and for climate change projections in 2050 and 2070. We calculated positivity rates of species localities to represent proportions of habitat expected to remain climatically suitable with continued climate change. Models projected under future conditions predicted average positivity rates of 91% (89–93%) for the blue-spotted salamander, 23% (2–41%) for the spotted salamander, 4% (0.7–9%) for the four-toed salamander, and 61% (42–76%) for the red-backed salamander. Range restriction increased with time and greenhouse gas concentration for the spotted salamander, four-toed salamander, and red-backed salamander. Common, widespread taxa that often receive less conservation resources than other species are at risk of experiencing significant losses to their climatic ranges as climate change continues. Efforts to maintain populations of species should be focused on regions expected to experience fewer climatic shifts such as the interior and northern zones of species' distributions.     

情景模拟在“医学微生物学”翻转课堂教学中的应用

翻转课堂是实现以学生为中心、提升学生自主学习能力的重要教学方法。随着线上课程的开展和学习平台技术的成熟,学生已能在课前获得足够的资源。然而,习惯于灌输式教育的学生仍缺乏自主学习的动力和方法。为此,我们教研团队尝试采用情景模拟的课堂活动设计来突破翻转环节实施的难点。研究发现,参考临床案例撰写剧本的过程能有效提升学生的自学兴趣和能力。学生课前在线预习时长和章节访问次数,以及参考资料阅读率和小组讨论时长均显著增加。课堂上,学生将课前所学知识在模拟实践中进行练习,促进了师生互动,帮助学生加深对知识的理解,提升学习成绩和满意度,同时也培养了学生的团队合作精神,建立临床思维,提升职业兴趣和能力。因此,情景模拟的融入实现了翻转课堂教学中“课前学”和“课上习”的教学闭环,为进一步推进翻转课堂的开展提供参考。     

近20年来京津冀地区土壤风蚀扬尘颗粒物排放变化

京津冀地区是我国大气污染严重区域,土壤扬尘颗粒物排放变化研究对于改善京津冀地区空气质量具有重要意义。收集2000-2019年京津冀地区气候、土壤、植被覆盖数据,分析近20年来京津冀地区土壤扬尘颗粒物排放变化,揭示其变化的影响因素。结果显示2000-2019年京津冀地区土壤扬尘源总悬浮颗粒物（TSP）排放系数均值为1.79 t km^-2 a^-1,其中PM10占8.99%,PM2.5占0.25%。近20年土壤扬尘源TSP排放系数具有下降趋势,PM10和PM2.5排放系数变化过程与TSP一致。上述变化主要受气候因子变化影响,其次受植被覆盖度影响。分析发现近20年来京津冀地区土壤扬尘源TSP排放系数变化主要受年降水量影响。沧州市、天津市和石家庄市土壤扬尘源TSP、PM10和PM2.5排放系数均值较高,张家口市、保定市和沧州市土壤扬尘源TSP排放量占京津冀地区总量的19.18%、12.98%和11.63%。耕地土壤扬尘排放量最大占京津冀地区总量的59.83%,是抑制土壤扬尘源颗粒物排放的重点关注对象,其次为草地占15.66%。2019年邢台市土壤扬尘源PM10排放占观测值比例最高为12.66%,石家庄市和天津市占比也较高分别为11.09%和10.30%,沧州市和邯郸市占比分别为8.63%和8.02%。上述地区环境管理部门均应关注土壤扬尘源颗粒物排放对空气质量的影响。     

新疆三种独尾草的适宜分布及其对未来气候变化的响应

研究国内仅分布于新疆的3种短命植物阿尔泰独尾草（Eremurus altaicus）、粗柄独尾草（Eremurus inderiensis）和异翅独尾草（Eremurus anisopterus）的适宜分布及其对未来气候的可能响应,对新疆短命植物资源的分布、利用与科学保护具有重要意义。共收集了64个自然分布点,筛选了6个气候因子和2个地形因子数据,利用MaxEnt模型和地理信息系统ArcGIS软件模拟了当前气候情景下3种独尾草的生态适宜性,探讨影响3种植物分布的主导因子及其数值范围,预测3种独尾草的适宜分布对未来气候变化（2001-2040年、2041-2080年,基于温室气体中等排放情景：SSP2-4.5共享社会经济路径）的可能响应。结果表明：（1）基准气候下,3种独尾草在新疆的适宜分布存在较大差异：阿尔泰独尾草主要分布于伊犁河谷、天山北麓、阿尔泰山中段和准噶尔西部山地;两种沙生独尾草均分布于天山中段的绿洲-荒漠区过渡带,古尔班通古特沙漠西南部沙地;（2）最干月降水量（1-25mm）主要限制了阿尔泰独尾草的适宜分布;温度季节性变动指数（1150-1672）主要限制了两种沙生独尾草的适宜分布;（3）2001-2040年和2041-2080年,3种独尾草的适宜分布整体均呈缩减趋势：阿尔泰独尾草向天山北麓和准噶尔西部山地略微缩减;粗柄独尾草和异翅独尾草向古尔班通古特沙漠南缘略微缩减。     

植被覆盖度对夏季降温效应的影响——以内蒙古为例

随着全球变暖的加剧,区域热环境问题日益凸显,植被的降温作用逐渐得到广泛关注。目前已有的研究多从样地尺度分析不同类型植被的降温效应。而区域尺度的研究多从定性的角度揭示地表温度与植被覆盖的关系,对评估植被的实际降温效应具有一定的局限性。以内蒙古为研究区,以MODIS地表温度数据为基础,采用近邻分析法,将森林、灌丛和草地的MODIS地表温度与相邻5km范围内的低覆盖地表作为对照,分析植被的降温效应以及植被覆盖度对降温效应的影响。从2015年7月地表温度平均值的结果来看,降温度数在蒙东、蒙中和蒙甘区均呈现森林>灌丛>草地。森林的降温范围在0.67-1.03℃,灌丛为0.60-0.95℃,草地为0.47-0.86℃。植被降温度数与植被覆盖度的回归拟合为对数分布,均呈显著正相关（P<0.01）。且在不同的植被覆盖度范围内植被降温效应具有显著差异,植被覆盖度水平较低时（<40%）,植被覆盖度的增加能更显著地降低地表温度。从整体来看,植被覆盖度每增加10%,森林降温0.12-0.39℃;灌丛降温0.1-0.2℃;草地降温0.049-0.075℃。综上,内蒙古作为全球气候变化最为敏感的区域之一,研究植被的夏季降温效应能够为内蒙古的气候调节服务评估提供重要的理论支撑及案例参考。     

Divergent selection along climatic gradients in a rare central European endemic species,Saxifraga sponhemica

Background and Aims The effects of habitat fragmentation on quantitative genetic variation in plant populations are still poorly known. Saxifraga sponhemica is a rare endemic of Central Europe with a disjunct distribution, and a stable and specialized habitat of treeless screes and cliffs. This study therefore used S. sponhemica as a model species to compare quantitative and molecular variation in order to explore (1) the relative importance of drift and selection in shaping the distribution of quantitative genetic variation along climatic gradients; (2) the relationship between plant fitness, quantitative genetic variation, molecular genetic variation and population size; and (3) the relationship between the differentiation of a trait among populations and its evolvability.Methods Genetic variation within and among 22 populations from the whole distribution area of S. sponhemica was studied using RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) markers, and climatic variables were obtained for each site. Seeds were collected from each population and germinated, and seedlings were transplanted into a common garden for determination of variation in plant traits.Key Results In contrast to previous results from rare plant species, strong evidence was found for divergent selection. Most population trait means of S. sponhemica were significantly related to climate gradients, indicating adaptation. Quantitative genetic differentiation increased with geographical distance, even when neutral molecular divergence was controlled for, and Q_ST exceeded F_ST for some traits. The evolvability of traits was negatively correlated with the degree of differentiation among populations (Q_ST), i.e. traits under strong selection showed little genetic variation within populations. The evolutionary potential of a population was not related to its size, the performance of the population or its neutral genetic diversity. However, performance in the common garden was lower for plants from populations with reduced molecular genetic variation, suggesting inbreeding depression due to genetic erosion.Conclusions The findings suggest that studies of molecular and quantitative genetic variation may provide complementary insights important for the conservation of rare species. The strong differentiation of quantitative traits among populations shows that selection can be an important force for structuring variation in evolutionarily important traits even for rare endemic species restricted to very specific habitats.